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Henry Stanley henryaj @usemast London, UK http://henrystanley.com CTO @usemast. Summer 1 '18 batch at @recursecenter. Formerly @thought-machine, @pivotal, @CloudCredo. @makersacademy alum.

henryaj/awesome-effective-altruism 11

A curated list of resources on how to do the most good

henryaj/ambient 4

Gracefully suspend BOSH Lite on system sleep

egeromin/napoleon 3

A lightweight blogging engine written in Scheme.

AveryEMcG/PostfixInMIPS 0

MIPS project to write a postfix calculator

benjamintillett/wherewasi 0

Bookmark manager in Sinatra. Week six at @makersacademy.

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A BOSH release that contains the notifications application and an errand to push it

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It's our Boris Bike project, as seen during Week 2 at MakersAcademy

hcarlens/tensorforce 0

TensorForce: A TensorFlow library for applied reinforcement learning

issue commentwearebraid/vue-formulate

Unable to get form errors from inside nested form group

Thanks so much for your help with this, Justin! Happy to close this out (or can leave it open if you think this is a genuine bug).

henryaj

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issue commentwearebraid/vue-formulate

Unable to get form errors from inside nested form group

Thanks for the quick reply!

Yeah, maybe it's a bit of a smell on my end. The use case is to display a single list of warnings at the very end of the form, as the form we have is very long and complex, so a summary of any missing fields/validation warnings is useful. Is there a way of doing this that doesn't involve me directly grabbing the errors in this way?

The listener is on the parent form that the form group is inside. I get the same result with the listener on the form group itself. Am experimenting with putting the listener on the form group's inputs directly, but this seems bad.

henryaj

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issue openedwearebraid/vue-formulate

Unable to get form errors from inside nested form group

If you have a form group with nested form fields, how do you get the errors on those form fields?

If I bind a handler to the parent form, like this:

<formulate-input @validation="myValidationEvent"> ...

If I log the output from that event to the console, the output for a normal form field looks this this:

{name: 'personalDetails', errors: Array(1), hasErrors: true}

where errors is an array containing the errors. But if I do the same for a form group, I get this:

{name: 'personalDetails', errors: Array(0), hasErrors: true}

Note the empty errors array – this seems like a bug. How do I get to the errors on the form fields nested inside the group?

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issue commentheroku/heroku-buildpack-google-chrome

google-chrome-beta_current_amd64.deb' is not a Debian format archive

For now, I just forked @Ottermad's repo and compared the sha of the saved .deb with the one downloaded from the official servers.

CrazybutSolid

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add lograge, set log level to INFO

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PR opened microcovid/microcovid

Nit: fix typo in whitepaper Q&A

Just a tiny one here

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Pull request review commentmicrocovid/microcovid

Include up-to-date estimate of long COVID prevalence

 When choosing your budget, you want to factor in  two important aspects: risk to      *   Some people (such as essential workers) have no choice but to run a high risk of getting COVID. Containing the pandemic across society only works if those of us who _do_ have a choice choose to take fewer risks. -### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget+### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget? -We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person; we don't think the ratio is likely to be higher than that, due to sources like the app-based [COVID Symptom Study](https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term) that found one in ten cases weren't fully recovered after 3 weeks. That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year.+We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person. Data from the UK's [Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021) suggests that 13.7% of COVID-infected people may continue to experience symptoms after 12 weeks ("long COVID"). Based on data from the [COVID Symptom Study](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1.full.pdf) app, researchers estimated that the proportion of people who experience symptomatic COVID infection and continue to have symptoms after 8 weeks is 5.1%, and 2.2% after 12 weeks.++That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year. 

Have made the change I suggested; let me know your thoughts.

henryaj

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Pull request review commentmicrocovid/microcovid

Include up-to-date estimate of long COVID prevalence

 When choosing your budget, you want to factor in  two important aspects: risk to      *   Some people (such as essential workers) have no choice but to run a high risk of getting COVID. Containing the pandemic across society only works if those of us who _do_ have a choice choose to take fewer risks. -### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget+### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget? -We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person; we don't think the ratio is likely to be higher than that, due to sources like the app-based [COVID Symptom Study](https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term) that found one in ten cases weren't fully recovered after 3 weeks. That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year.+We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person. Data from the UK's [Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021) suggests that 13.7% of COVID-infected people may continue to experience symptoms after 12 weeks ("long COVID"). Based on data from the [COVID Symptom Study](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1.full.pdf) app, researchers estimated that the proportion of people who experience symptomatic COVID infection and continue to have symptoms after 8 weeks is 5.1%, and 2.2% after 12 weeks.++That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year. 

Do you mean the chart on page 8 (figure 2)? I think that's based on the ONS data mentioned earlier.

The ONS data from that study are truncated at 130 days (~18.5 weeks); as you say it seems 12% of people in the COVID-infected group had symptoms at that point. Maybe I drop the ZOE reference and replace the paragraph with the following:

We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person (sometimes called "long COVID"). A study of 20,000 people from the UK's Office for National Statistics showed 13.7% of COVID-infected people continued to experience symptoms after 12 weeks, with 12% continuing to experience symptoms after 18.5 weeks.

That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as a 0.12% chance ...

henryaj

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Pull request review commentmicrocovid/microcovid

Include up-to-date estimate of long COVID prevalence

 When choosing your budget, you want to factor in  two important aspects: risk to      *   Some people (such as essential workers) have no choice but to run a high risk of getting COVID. Containing the pandemic across society only works if those of us who _do_ have a choice choose to take fewer risks. -### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget+### How did you arrive at a 1% annual risk budget? -We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person; we don't think the ratio is likely to be higher than that, due to sources like the app-based [COVID Symptom Study](https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term) that found one in ten cases weren't fully recovered after 3 weeks. That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year.+We think as many as 1 in 10 COVID cases could potentially lead to long-term negative health consequences for the infected person. Data from the UK's [Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021) suggests that 13.7% of COVID-infected people may continue to experience symptoms after 12 weeks ("long COVID"). Based on data from the [COVID Symptom Study](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1.full.pdf) app, researchers estimated that the proportion of people who experience symptomatic COVID infection and continue to have symptoms after 8 weeks is 5.1%, and 2.2% after 12 weeks.++That would mean that a 1% chance of COVID is the same as up to a 0.1% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from COVID. The average American drives [13,476 miles per year](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). In 2018 [there were](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf) 2,491,000 car-crash-related injuries (of any severity) spread across 3,240,327,000,000 vehicle miles travelled (see the [NHTSA website](https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm) for more detailed breakdowns). [A study of Swedish car crash injuries](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256772/) found that 11.4% of them met the criteria for at least “1% permanent medical impairment” five years later. (“Permanent medical impairment” is a [legally-relevant concept](https://www.disabilitysecrets.com/resources/understanding-permanent-disability-rating-system.htm) that attempts to quantify disability, and the 1% level was the lowest level of disability that was discussed in the Swedish car crash study.) Multiplying this out, we get a 0.11% chance of ongoing negative health consequences from driving for one year. 

The bulk of the change is here - added a reference to ONS data and the estimates from the ZOE team (which were based on app data after adjusting for the sex and age of the cohort vs the UK population).

Removed reference to "we don't think the ratio is likely to be higher than that" as this is confusing wording. (When scanning I read this as "we don't think it's likely to be higher than 1 in 10", when actually it means the opposite.)

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replace "ZOE" with "COVID Symptom Study app"

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PR opened microcovid/microcovid

Include up-to-date estimate of long COVID prevalence

Update the whitepaper FAQ to include an up-to-date estimate of long COVID prevalence from the ONS and ZOE.

+6 -3

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Estimating the COVID risk of ordinary activities

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issue commentmicrocovid/microcovid

Long-term health risks to otherwise young, healthy people

Thanks for the quick response @beshaya!

Those are more compelling figures than the stat that's currently mentioned in the relevant FAQ section - would suggest replacing it. Also worth adding to the section that talks about long COVID in more depth.

Happy to raise a PR.

NickHeiner

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issue commentmicrocovid/microcovid

Long-term health risks to otherwise young, healthy people

My intuition is actually the opposite here – people not being recovered after three weeks isn't that concerning. COVID comfortably lasts two weeks; 'three weeks' seems far too early to conclude that someone has long-term negative health effects (which the 1% risk per year default seems to rely on).

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